Main Catalog Aviation and Rocket-Space Engineering Aircraft Dynamics, Ballistics, Motion Control

Analysis and comparison of methods for predicting launches of satellites of various types into low Earth orbit

Authors: Pasynkov A.A., Sveshnikova A.S., Titov O.G.
Published in issue: #2(67)/2022
DOI: 10.18698/2541-8009-2022-2-767
Category: Aviation and Rocket-Space Engineering \| Chapter: Aircraft Dynamics, Ballistics, Motion Control
Keywords: forecasting, launches, spacecraft, satellite, trend model, time (dynamic) series, regression analysis
Published: 18.02.2022

The authors completed a study of global launches into low Earth orbit for the period 2016–2020 of spacecraft of various types: satellites for remote sensing of the Earth, communication satellites and experimental and technological satellites. The initial data are taken from open sources and are collected in three separate tables in the Microsoft Excel program. As part of the work, calculations were carried out and graphs were built. In the course of the study, forecasting in the MS Excel program of launches of satellites of each type was performed by two analytical methods: extrapolation of trends and least squares. The results of forecasting showed that communication satellites tend to increase the number of launches, and therefore are more promising in terms of technological novelty.

References

[1] Nosenko Ya. RusBase. Kak stremitel’noe razvitie sputnikov mozhet povliyat’ na zhizn’ na zemle [How intense satellite development can impact on life on Earth]. rb.ru: website (in Russ.). URL: https://rb.ru/story/satellites-impact-earth/ (accessed: 01.12.2021).

[2] UCS satellite database. ucsusa.org: website. URL: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database (accessed: 21.10.2021).

[3] Vse, chto Vam nuzhno znat’ o nizkoy okolozemnoy orbite [Everything we know about low Earth orbit]. mediasat.info: website (in Russ.). URL: https://mediasat.info/2015/07/10/leo/ (accessed: 01.12.2021).

[4] One Web operezhaet SpaceX v razvertyvanii seti internet sputnikov [One Web is ahead of SpaceX in satellite net deployment]. habr.com: website (in Russ.). URL: https://habr.com/ru/post/442476/ (accessed: 01.12.2021).

[5] Zav’yalov P.S. Prognozirovanie: metodologii i protsedury [Forecasting: methodology and procedures]. V: Marketing v skhemakh, risunkakh, tablitsakh [In: marketing in schemes, drawings and charts]. Moscow, INFRA-M Publ., 2007, pp. 93–100 (in Russ.).

[6] Svetun’kov I.S., Svetun’kov S.G. Metody i modeli sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya. T. 2. Metody i modeli [Methods and models of social-economic forecasting. Vol. 2. Methods and models]. Moscow, Yurayt Publ., 2014 (in Russ.).

[7] Samokhvalova E.A., Shlyakhtenkova A.V. World launch vehicle operations trends. Politekhnicheskiy molodezhnyy zhurnal [Politechnical Student Journal], 2019, no. 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.18698/2541-8009-2019-10-536 (in Russ.).

[8] Gorelova G.V., Katsko I.A. Teoriya veroyatnostey i matematicheskaya statistika v primerakh i zadachakh s primeneniem EXCEL [Probability theory and mathematical statistics in examples and problems using EXCEL]. Rostov-na-Donu, Feniks Publ., 2005 (in Russ.).

[9] Popov A.A. Excel: prakticheskoe rukovodstvo [Excel: practical guidance]. Moscow, Dess Kom, 2000 (in Russ.).

[10] Baraz V.R., Pegashkin V.F. Ispol’zovanie MS Excel dlya analiza staticheskikh dannykh [Using MS Excel for analysis of static data]. Nizhniy Tagil, UrFU Publ., 2014 (in Russ.).