Analysis and selection of the optimal time series forecasting method using the example of industrial production index of computers, electronic and optical products

Authors: Dodonova A.A.
Published in issue: #4(69)/2022
DOI: 10.18698/2541-8009-2022-4-783
Category: Economics and Production Organization
Keywords: industrial production index, forecasting, time series, fractal analysis, fractal index, self-similarity, regression, stochastic processes
Published: 28.04.2022

This paper focuses on the analysis and selection of the optimal time series forecasting method. The difficulty in forecasting this kind of data is that it often represents a reflection of complex, chaotic systems, which are influenced by a huge number of different factors. Particular attention is paid to the importance of applying new and more accurate forecasting methods, as the rapidly changing environment of organization requires a shorter response time to emerging changes. An example of conducting a fractal analysis on time series of an industrial production index of computers, electronic and optical products in order to assess the possibility for the further forecasting of this time series is considered.

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