Projection of economically active population of moscow region using fuzzy logic

Authors: Chernysh A.V.
Published in issue: #12(17)/2017
DOI: 10.18698/2541-8009-2017-12-220
Category: Economics and Production Organization
Keywords: projection, population, fuzzy set theory, fuzzification, defuzzification, demographic projection, approximation
Published: 29.11.2017

In this paper we introduce the analysis of economically active population upon incomplete and inaccurate information. We studied the possibilities of using the fuzzy set theory in modeling demographic aspects of labour market. For every individual year over specific time frame (2014–2016), we forecasted economically active population growth taking into account the population growth rate. To test the adequacy measure of the developed model, we estimated the error by approximation method. The error demonstrated the sufficient proximity of data, which, in turn, fosters more research in this field.

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